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International Journal of Water Resources Engineering

Analysis of Trend in Rainfall Data using Mann-Kendall Test and Linear Regression Method

  1. N VIVEKANANDAN
  2. C SRISHAILAM ORCID iD

Abstract

Rainfall is a vital part of the hydrologic cycle and changes in its pattern directly influence the water resources of concerned regions. Changes in rainfall response as a result of climate change that gives alarming to hydrologists and water resource managers as these changes in rainfall quantity and frequency are altering the pattern of stream flows and demands, spatial and temporal distribution of runoff, soil moisture, etc. The drastic changes in rainfall trend showed a significant impact on society and therefore its up-to-date information is needed to estimate the spatial distribution and variability at all points of the territory that would also lead to hazardous events like flood and drought. In this paper, a study on analysing the trend in annual 1-day maximum rainfall (AMR), monsoon season total rainfall (MTR) and annual total rainfall (ATR) of Dharamsala region is carried out. The presence of statistically significant trend in AMR, MTR and ATR series at 5% significance level is evaluated through non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test and linear regression (LR) method. The MK test statistic values indicate the presence of decreasing trend in AMR and ATR, and an increasing trend in MTR. The fitted trend line using LR shows the rate of decreasing trend in AMR is 0.35 mm per decade and 7.85 mm per decade for ATR, and an increasing trend in MTR with a rate of 2.91 mm per decade.

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